Preface to the Focus Section on the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP): New Results and Future Directions

Andrew J. Michael and Maximilian J. Werner

Penerbit : Seismological Research Letters

Tahun : 2018

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP; Jordan, 2006) carries out fully prospective tests of earthquake forecasts, using fixed and standardized statistical tests and authoritative data sets, to assess the predictive skill of forecast models and to make objective comparisons between models. CSEP conducts prospective experiments at four testing centers around the world, at which more than 400 models and model versions are currently under evaluation. These models include a range of methods and scales from long-term global earthquake forecasts to short-term regional forecasts used for Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). CSEP has also conducted retrospective tests and developed new testing methods in its quest to answer fundamental scientific questions, improve seismic hazard assessments, and develop new forecast methods for OEF.

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